Source: Taiwan, a Malacca blockade and India’s options; Editorial, The Hindu; 09-11-2023
Syllabus: India and its neighbourhood; International Relations, Security.
Introduction: The Taiwan Question
- China’s recent intimidation of Taiwan raises questions about India’s potential involvement.
- Speculative action in the Strait of Malacca or the Andaman Sea could involve a naval blockade or military action.
- Commercial shipping and naval vessels have a right to freedom of navigation on the high seas.
India’s Options and Constraints in the Strait of Malacca
- Distant blockades may be challenged under international law.
- The trade through the Strait of Malacca is vital not only for China but also for countries like Japan, South Korea, and India.
- The Strait’s long channel involves the sovereignty of countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore.
- Commercial shipping is complex to identify in terms of sovereignty, flag, registration, insurance, and ownership.
- Even if the Strait of Malacca were “choked,” shipping can take alternative routes.
- China’s onshore and floating Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) can mitigate disruptions.
Lessons from History
- Historical examples show that naval blockades and sanctions can lead to conflicts.
Conflict Scenarios
- A blockade in the Strait of Malacca would be tantamount to a declaration of war and could lead to a broader conflict.
- Regional countries adversely affected by disruption are unlikely to endorse unilateral action.
- India’s role in a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan may focus on defending territorial interests and securing sea lines of communication.
- India would prioritize its continental borders with China.
Conclusion
- India should consider the complexities and potential consequences before taking action in the Strait of Malacca in a U.S.-China conflict scenario.